Cross-asset brief
4 cross-checks ok
Levels
Equities
Treasury curve
Real and inflation
Funding
Credit
FX
Commodities
What's unusual today
- Equity vol is 53 percentile points more stressed than credit — the two markets disagree, and one of them is wrong. (8th pct since 1994)
- WTI crude: managed money net long 36,187 contracts, 13th percentile of 3 years.
- 10y Treasury note: leveraged funds net short 2,107,224 contracts, 23rd percentile of 3 years.
- Gold: managed money net long 104,206 contracts, 24th percentile of 3 years.
- US Dollar Index: leveraged funds net long 3,183 contracts, 73rd percentile of 3 years.
Setup
Positioning-price divergence
-24 pctile pts
Leveraged funds sit 24 percentile points shorter than price alone would suggest — 59th percentile of this relationship's own history.
as of 2026-10-20 · CFTC, YAHOO
why this is here
Where leveraged funds positioning in E-mini S&P 500 futures sits in its three-year range, minus where the index price sits in its three-month range.
Positive means funds are long into weak price — a rally without sponsorship, vulnerable to liquidation if it breaks. Negative means short into strong price, which is how squeezes start. Near zero means positioning and price agree and there is no tension to trade.
Metrics
Nasdaq vs 10y regime
-0.12
38th percentile since 2025
Nasdaq and 10y yields are moving inversely (-0.12) — a rate-driven tape, and bonds are hedging equities.
as of 2026-10-22 · FRED, YAHOO
why this is here
Whether equities and long-term yields have been moving together or in opposite directions over the last 60 trading days.
Negative means bonds are hedging equities: a selloff in stocks is cushioned by a rally in Treasuries. Positive means the two fall together, which is what happens when inflation or policy is the driver — and it is the regime in which a 60/40 portfolio stops working.
Credit vs vol divergence
-53 pctile pts
8th percentile since 1994
Equity vol is 53 percentile points more stressed than credit — the two markets disagree, and one of them is wrong.
as of 2026-10-22 · FRED
why this is here
Where credit spreads sit in their own five-year range, minus where equity volatility sits in its. Both are stress gauges; this is the gap between what they are saying.
A large positive reading means credit is pricing more stress than the equity market is. The two usually agree, so a wide gap means one is early and the other complacent — the useful question is which, because the gap closes one way or the other.
Cross-asset co-movement
+0.32
64th percentile since 2025
Mean pairwise correlation 0.32 — 64th percentile of its own history, neither unusually single-factor nor unusually idiosyncratic.
as of 2026-10-16 · FRED, YAHOO
why this is here
The average strength of the relationship between every pair in the basket — equities, 10y yields, the dollar, credit, crude and volatility — over 60 days, ignoring direction.
High means one macro factor is driving everything at once, so diversification is not working and sizing matters more than selection. Low means assets are responding to their own stories, which is the environment relative-value needs.
Positioning — E-mini S&P 500 (leveraged funds)
-371,245 contracts
35th percentile of the last 3 years
E-mini S&P 500: leveraged funds net short 371,245 contracts, 35th percentile of 3 years.
as of 2026-10-20 · CFTC
why this is here
How large speculative leveraged funds positioning is in E-mini S&P 500 futures, against the last three years of its own history. Published weekly by the CFTC, as of the prior Tuesday.
A crowded position is fuel rather than a signal on its own — it says who would be forced to sell if the move went against them. Extremes matter most when price stops confirming the position.
Positioning — 10y Treasury note (leveraged funds)
-2,107,224 contracts
23rd percentile of the last 3 years
10y Treasury note: leveraged funds net short 2,107,224 contracts, 23rd percentile of 3 years.
as of 2026-10-20 · CFTC
why this is here
How large speculative leveraged funds positioning is in 10y Treasury note futures, against the last three years of its own history. Published weekly by the CFTC, as of the prior Tuesday.
A crowded position is fuel rather than a signal on its own — it says who would be forced to sell if the move went against them. Extremes matter most when price stops confirming the position.
Positioning — US Dollar Index (leveraged funds)
+3,183 contracts
73rd percentile of the last 3 years
US Dollar Index: leveraged funds net long 3,183 contracts, 73rd percentile of 3 years.
as of 2026-10-20 · CFTC
why this is here
How large speculative leveraged funds positioning is in US Dollar Index futures, against the last three years of its own history. Published weekly by the CFTC, as of the prior Tuesday.
A crowded position is fuel rather than a signal on its own — it says who would be forced to sell if the move went against them. Extremes matter most when price stops confirming the position.
Positioning — Gold (managed money)
+104,206 contracts
24th percentile of the last 3 years
Gold: managed money net long 104,206 contracts, 24th percentile of 3 years.
as of 2026-10-20 · CFTC
why this is here
How large speculative managed money positioning is in Gold futures, against the last three years of its own history. Published weekly by the CFTC, as of the prior Tuesday.
A crowded position is fuel rather than a signal on its own — it says who would be forced to sell if the move went against them. Extremes matter most when price stops confirming the position.
Positioning — WTI crude (managed money)
+36,187 contracts
13th percentile of the last 3 years
WTI crude: managed money net long 36,187 contracts, 13th percentile of 3 years.
as of 2026-10-20 · CFTC
why this is here
How large speculative managed money positioning is in WTI crude futures, against the last three years of its own history. Published weekly by the CFTC, as of the prior Tuesday.
A crowded position is fuel rather than a signal on its own — it says who would be forced to sell if the move went against them. Extremes matter most when price stops confirming the position.